Macau’s casino gross gaming revenue (GGR) in May “came in better than recent expectations,” supported by “strong premium play” but impacted by softer revenue in the VIP segment, “largely due to low hold,” says brokerage Seaport Research Partners,
“We believe May GGR was negatively impacted by low VIP hold, following low hold in April; hold-adjusted growth would have likely been over 12 percent to 13 percent,” analyst Vitaly Umansky wrote in a Monday memo.
Casino GGR in Macau rose 6.7 percent year-on-year in May, to just above MOP22.61 billion (US$2.80 billion), according to official data.
In Monday’s note, Mr Umansky said the Macau market’s underlying demand remains healthy, supported by strong premium-play activity and continued availability of liquidity, but growth rates are expected to moderate from recent levels.
Seaport estimates Macau GGR will increase by 6.2 percent for full-year 2026, but expects second-half growth to fall below 4 percent year-on-year unless there is a meaningful improvement in demand or in liquidity conditions.
The brokerage noted that premium gaming remains the key driver of the market’s recovery.
Premium-mass revenue is estimated to be circa 170 percent above 2019 levels, while base-mass play continues to lag pre-pandemic performance. Per Seaport’s estimates, base-mass gaming remains about 15 percent below 2019 levels, with overnight visitors representing a particular area of weakness.
“The key driver of our growth forecast in 2026 remains continued easy liquidity,” the analyst stated, adding that easier visa policies and access to credit have continued to support higher-end play.
Seaport argued that a recovery in overnight base-mass visitation would be one of the most important catalysts for sustained growth, particularly for operators with large exposure to that segment.
The note also highlighted several structural drivers that could support revenue growth, including the rollout of smart gaming tables and increased baccarat side-betting activity.
According to Seaport, side bets now account for “well more” than 3 percent of baccarat volume and “rising”.
“The casino advantage in side bets is materially higher than traditional baccarat play, and while increasing side bets may reduce overall game time – as players lose money faster –, the overall GGR per player would increase,” Mr Umansky noted.
