The three months to June 30 were “arguably Macau’s toughest quarter since reopening” of normal tourism business in January 2023 after the Covid-19 pandemic, says banking group Citi in fresh commentary on the city’s casino sector.
Gross gaming revenue (GGR) was “impacted by both the global soccer tournament and some extremely unfavourable hold rates” on gaming business, stated analysts George Choi and Timothy Chau. April was in likelihood the worst month of the quarter in terms specifically of VIP hold, they added.
They were referring first to the ongoing FIFA World Cup 2026 in North America, which a number of analysts has said diverted consumer attention away from Macau casino gambling. The final of the football tournament is due in the United States on July 19.
Citi added, regarding the second-quarter trading situation: “The resulting operating deleverage will likely translate to a 7 percent year-on-year fall in second-quarter 2026 industry EBITDA [earnings before interest, taxation, depreciation and amortisation] to US$1.923 billion, the lowest level since third-quarter 2024.”
Judged quarter on quarter, Macau-industry EBITDA were likely to be down circa 12 percent, added Citi.
“We expect industry EBITDA margin to fall 1.5 percentage points year-on-year to circa 25.8 percent, mainly reflecting the operating deleverage from the lower-than-theoretical VIP hold,” stated its analysts.
The bank nonetheless observed that with a “star-studded concert and event calendar” in the third and fourth quarters of 2026, Macau GGR “should swiftly return to normal soon after the tournament ends”.
The institution expects Galaxy Entertainment Group Ltd to have been the largest EBITDA market share gainer in the second-quarter of 2026. On a sequential basis, Citi anticipates the firm gained 1.7 percentage points, to a market share of circa 24.2 percent.
Citi also noted Galaxy Entertainment had the “longest investment tail” among Macau’s six operators, via Phase 4 of its Galaxy Macau flagship in the city’s Cotai district.
Phase 4 of Galaxy Macau is likely to open in 2028, aimed at attracting high-value consumers, particularly from feeder markets in East and Southeast Asia, said a May report from banking group HSBC.
In its market-wide assessment of the second quarter, Citi said Sands China Ltd was expected to have recorded the largest quarter-on-quarter decline in EBITDA, with its market share falling by 2.5 percentage points to around 27 percent.
